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Super Bowl week has arrived and for fans, this is the biggest betting week of the year. The excitement will continue throughout the week. This will be a full breakdown of everything you need to know about betting on the Super Bowl including where, how, and tips to help with your strategic decision making.
Betting on the Super Bowl is one of the most popular sports bets that fans make every year. Because it is one of the most-watched and bet on events in the country, oddsmakers are very careful where they place their lines. Understanding NFL Super Bowl odds is important for every budding sports bettor.
Sportsbooks use a host of different factors to include in NFL odds. Such as strength of schedule, previous season success, additions on the roster, and past history to show the likelihood to win the big game.
The Chiefs have long been the favorite to take the championship this season, and not much has changed in the lead-up to Super Bowl LV. Sportsbook oddsmakers give Kansas City a 60% shot at winning the game, with average odds sitting at -171. Still, it’s anything but a no-brainer, with the Brady-backed Buccaneers looking to sign off on this tumultuous season with a statement-making win. Books set those odds at +147, giving Tampa Bay a 40% chance at the 2021 Vince Lombardi Trophy.
Current Super Bowl Spread, Moneyline & Over/Under
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Cheifs vs Buccaneers: Chances of Winning Super Bowl 2021
| -166 | -164 | -154 | -154 | -160 | 61.44% | -1.22% | 8.07% | 28.36% |
| +144 | +140 | +135 | +135 | +139 | 41.94% | 1.20% | -0.97% | 26.52% |
Odds are automatically updated once a day.
Best Super Bowl 2021 US Sports Betting Bonuses & Offers
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Odds To Win The Super Bowl – When Was There The Most Value?
Super Bowl odds are always changing throughout the season. Be sure to check continually for updates as well as use our automated chart to track the changes in 7, 14, and 21-day intervals. The NFL futures odds are updated daily.
An important distinction for teams as the season draws nearly over is looking at future schedules. For instance, the Ravens and Seahawks have some of the easiest schedules in the NFL to end the season. They should come close to winning out and put themselves in a good position to make it to the Super Bowl.
Now that the season matchup is decided, let us see how the odds went in totality. This is to say, when should we have bet on the Chiefs and when should we have bet on the Buccaneers. Keeping track of these odds is crucial during season-long bets because buying stock in these teams (placing bets) is how you increase profitability. There was plenty of value on these teams at points if timed correctly.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2800
You read that correctly, when Tom Brady signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, BetMGM had the Buccaneers at +2800. That means that a $10 dollar bet would net you $280 in profit during the season.
During the season, the Buccaneers fluctuated greatly. However, during week 11, the Buccaneers were as high as +1650 to win the Super Bowl. Phenomenal value that late in the season.
Kansas City Chiefs +600
The Chiefs were an uphill battle when betting the Super Bowl since their week 3 dominating win over the Ravens. The Ravens came in at +500 to win the Super Bowl prior to the season. When the Chiefs came out motivated and dominated the Ravens, they plummeted from +600 to under +400 at some books.
Overall, it would appear that the best time to bet a team to win the Super Bowl is prior to the season. This is easier said than done obviously. However, the Chiefs odds dropped considerably once the season started. Looking at the schedule for a favorite and projecting how many wins they will have is very important.
COVID-19 Affecting Gameplay
The 2021 Super Bowl odds changed dramatically as the nation learned how COVID-19 affected gameplay throughout the season. There have been ups and downs this season for the NFL but it appears like they are going to power through.
The NFL experienced plenty of positive tests this season for COVID-19. They have been proactive in attempting to contact trace to stop the spread and save games. This was a very successful tactic for the NFL.
There were some pitfalls, however, as they contemplated canceling games. At one point, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported via Twitter that the NFL considered adding a Week 18. The details of how week 18 would have played out are still unknown. What we do know, is that the NFL ultimately didn’t need a Week 18.
While the NFL approved new protocols in the case of canceled games, it was clear that they had no interest in doing so. The NFL played the Ravens vs. Steelers game on a Wednesday when it was originally scheduled six days prior, on Thanksgiving.
Furthermore, the Broncos’ entire quarterback room was placed on the COVID-19 list making them ineligible for week 12. Many might forget this but it was the strangest game I remember in the NFL. The result was starting a wide receiver at quarterback and being embarrassed 31-3. The NFL had zero interest in canceling games.
The playoffs were not played in a bubble as the NBA did for the 2020 NBA Finals playoffs. This was rather surprising considering players were consistently testing positive for COVID-19.
The NFL did not hit many snags in the playoffs. There were not any game-changing COVID-19 positive tests. Hopefully, this trend continues and we won’t see any positive tests the week of the Super Bowl.
Where Can I Bet On The Super Bowl Online
If you want to bet on the Super Bowl online you must be located in one of the states that permit legal online sports betting.
The list of states where online sports betting is legalized changes regularly. Each of these states already has live online sportsbooks ready to take Super Bowl futures bets. Most also have retail sportsbooks for local betting.
States like New Jersey and Pennsylvania set the stage for online Super Bowl Betting early on. States like Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Tennessee, Nevada, and West Virginia all launched online sports betting. Michigan and Virginia became the two most recent states to launch online sports betting.
Each state has different sportsbooks that are legally allowed to operate in a given state. For example, BetMGM is legal in New Jersey, Nevada, Tennessee, West Virginia, Indiana, and Colorado. One of the more widely recognized sportsbooks, BetMGM offers a $500 risk-free bet that can be used while betting on the Super Bowl.
Learn more in our Guide To Placing A Sports Bet Online.
How To Choose The Best Sportsbook For Super Bowl Betting
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Many fans would be keen to use this risk-free bet for a free shot at the Super Bowl winner at advantageous odds. For instance, if you bet on the Buccaneers to win the Super Bowl before they signed Tom Brady you would get odds near +3000. These are extremely strong odds and gives your bet of $500 the chance to turn into $15,500.
It is important to differentiate which sportsbooks have the best odds. Sharps typically have multiple sportsbooks that they are registered with. They will flip between the sports betting apps to make a decision that is the most profitable. For example, if PointsBet has the Buccaneers at +2900 but BetMGM had the odds at +2600, the seemingly small difference in odds is worth $1,500 in this particular bet.
Each sportsbook is different based on the available odds. Some charge a higher vig and some odds change because big amounts of money are being thrown around. If large wagers are placed on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl, their odds will begin to change so the books can adjust to the amount of liability.
How To Place Online Super Bowl Bets
When bettors want to wager on the Super Bowl they must first sign up for a sportsbook. It is important to take advantage of promotions that they may have going. Refer to Bonus.com’s Sportsbook Reviews to get the exclusive promotional codes and find the sportsbook right for you. Then, follow these steps:
- Step 1: Use our Online Sports Betting Guide to find the right sportsbook for you and to take advantage of the best promotions.
- Step 2: Choose your sportsbook and download the app.
- Step 3: Go to the sign-up page and register for your account.
- Step 4: Enter your first and last name as well as your email address and last four 4 of your social security number.
- Step 5: Deposit money using the promo code found in the review.
- Step 6: Tap on Sports > NFL> NFL Futures> Super Bowl Odds> Place bet.
- Step 7: Once your team wins the Super Bowl, sign in to your account options, tap withdrawal, and enjoy your payday!
Where Can I Bet On The Super Bowl In Vegas?
Las Vegas is one of the top cities for betting on sports in the country. Mobile betting is not ideal, however, as fans must go to a casino first before being able to register for a mobile sportsbook.
Vegas is known for its wide array of casinos and resorts that get herds of visitors from across the country. The plethora of options on the Vegas Strip will make the fan experience even more fun whether you are betting on live events already in progress or before gameplay. Going to Las Vegas sportsbooks to place Super Bowl bets is very common.
MGM Grand, Caesar’s Palace, and Golden Nugget are very popular Las Vegas casinos. The Westgate SuperBook, Caesars Palace, Wynn, South Point, Venetian, and many other Las Vegas casinos host sportsbooks. All of these venues offer numerous ways to bet on the NFL.
How Are Super Bowl Betting Odds Calculated?
Bettors that understand how odds are broken-down and calculated can make bets more educated. There are so many different factors that play into the Super Bowl favorites. More often than not, the best teams are going given the best odds. But this is not always the case.
Before the 2019 season, bookmakers placed the Chiefs at +600 odds and the Patriots at +400 odds. Few will deny that the Chiefs have more talent but the reality is that the Patriots have the pedigree and history to make bettors lean their direction.
Other factors will include the difficulty of their regular season schedule, additions to the roster from the previous year, and of course, the overall talent on the roster. When the Chiefs won the Super Bowl in February of 2020, they were +600 before the start of the season. If you signed up for PointsBet Sportsbook or FanDuel Sportsbook, you were given a $500 risk-free bet. If you placed your risk-free bet on the Chiefs your $500 bet would profit $3,000.
When looking ahead to the odds for this coming season, the Chiefs drafted a running back in the backend of the first round giving them another playmaker at their disposal. The running back from LSU Clyde Edwards-Helaire will not drastically switch the odds.
However, coming off of a Super Bowl-winning season, the Chiefs brought nearly everyone back and added a running back at their weakest offensive position. Bringing the band back together and adding to it is exactly what oddsmakers look for when declaring favorites. The Chiefs are the favorite again this year and are as high as +600 to repeat as Super Bowl champs.
For more resources, check out our NFL Odds Calculator and Sports Betting Edge Table.
NFL Super Bowl LV Odds Breakdown
The Super Bowl is here and the Chiefs have opened up as 3 point favorites. Tom Brady is preparing for his 10th Super Bowl which is unbelievable in and of itself. Generation vs. Generation is in effect, we could be watching a passing of the torch. From Brady… to Mahomes.
Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook
Kansas City Chiefs (-3)
Super Bowl Odds For The Chiefs
- The Chiefs went down 9-0 early in the first quarter against the Buffalo Bills and ended up blowing the Bills out. When tested, the Chiefs are the most explosive team I can remember seeing in all of my years of watching football.
- The only way to beat the Chiefs is to keep the ball away from Mahomes. Big plays are not going to win you games. A slow, methodical approach to the game is the only hope to beating the Chiefs.
- The Chiefs opened up as 3 point favorites in the Super Bowl and I would expect them to climb to 3.5. The value is now as a field goal is very generous with this offense that is hardly tested.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3)
Super Bowl Odds For The Buccaneers
- Tom Brady had 3 touchdown passes in the first half and looked horrific in the second half. However, he is 43 years old and has 2 weeks to prepare for the biggest game of his life. It has been Super Bowl or bust all year, they now have their shot.
- The Packers were the best team all season long in the NFC. Rodgers was the NFC MVP and had plenty of chances to win the game. The Bucs cannot give out those chances again. Mahomes will make them pay every time.
- The Buccaneers have the first-ever home Super Bowl. The Super Bowl will take place in Tampa Bay so there is a slight edge to having a home game. The difference should not be too large, there will not be many fans in attendance. The Buccaneers are 3 point underdogs in this one.
NFL Super Bowl Odds And Betting
Moneyline
Also known as a “straight bet” a Moneyline bet just chooses the winner of the game. When betting on the Moneyline, the odds are usually not exact. Typically there are favorites and underdogs. When the Chiefs and 49ers matched up for the Super Bowl, the Chiefs were around -121 and the 49ers +107.
When comparing NFL odds, a plus symbol means that the option is an underdog. The minus symbol means the option is a favorite to win. Moneyline betting odds with a “+” notation are relatively simple to calculate. The +195 line on the Giants, for example, means a $100 wager would net $195 in profit. In other words, the $100 bet would return a total of $295 (the $195 in profit and the original $100 bet).
Point Spreads
Points spread bets or “handicap bets” are when sportsbooks put teams against a number that they must win or lose by. For the Chiefs, they were -1.5 against the 49ers during Super Bowl LIV. Had they won by 1 point and you bet on -1.5, the bet would lose. Conversely, if the 49ers lost by 1 and you had +1.5, your bet would win.
Over/Under (Totals)
Betting on an Over/Under or total points bet means you are not betting on any team. If you bet over you are betting on the combined number of points between the two teams. Bookmakers set a number. Fans need to decide whether the game will go over or under that number. For Super Bowl LIV, bookmakers set the Over/Under at 54.5.
Parlays
When placing a parlay bet, you are betting on two or more things to happen. To get paid on your bet, all of the outcomes must occur in a given parlay. If you were to parlay Chiefs to win and Under 54.5 your bet would win. Conversely, if you bet Chiefs to win and Over 54.5 your bet would lose as the score of Super Bowl LIV was 31-20.
What Is An NFL Futures Bet?
The futures market in sports betting is a huge part of the industry. The possible bet types range from championship winners to divisional winners, and even MVP candidates. Fans can even bet on games that have not happened yet. For instance, when the Saints play the Vikings on Christmas Day, odds could be available weeks before this competitive matchup. These are all examples of an NFL Futures Bet.
Super Bowl Prop Bets
Prop bets are becoming more popular in the sports betting world. And there is no more popular betting event than the Super Bowl. Super Bowl prop bets go hand-in-hand because of the creativity involved and the added excitement for a much-hyped game.
A prop bet is a bet on an occurrence or non-occurrence of an event happening in a game, match, or season.
Super Bowl LV Available Prop Bets
Most Super Bowl prop bets are set once the teams are decided for the matchup. Until then, sportsbooks might get creative about what prop bets they start to offer before that time. Due to how unique this NFL season is, the prop bets could be more creative than ever.
The sportsbooks continue to add interesting prop bets for Super Bowl LV, but here are a few to look out for.
Odds are provided by DraftKings Sportsbook
Super Bowl MVP Odds
Patrick Mahomes: +100
Tom Brady: +210
Tyreek Hill: +1200
Travis Kelce: +1300
Leonard Fournette: +2500
Clyde Ewards-Helaire: +2800
Super Bowl MVP is one of the most popular bets for the Super Bowl. Seven of the last 10 Super Bowl MVPs have been quarterbacks so this could be a good value if you want a little extra juice on the winning team. These odds have been released and will be updated as more props become available.
Coin Toss Odds
Heads – 103
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Tails -103
Betting on Heads or Tails is a popular bet on the Super Bowl. This is a pure 50% bet but some books are still collecting a vig. This bet could be done anywhere anytime so the modest vig from sportsbooks are worth avoiding. It is worth noting that 5 of the last 7 coin tosses have been tails.
To Win Coin Toss And Game Odds
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Yes +355 No -500
Kansas City Chiefs: +205 No -265
This bet immediately pops up for me because the parlayed vigorish isn’t very high. This could be another way to get juicier odds on a team that you think will win. The Chiefs are -167 on the moneyline and the Buccaneers are +145 to win.
Total Players To Attempt A Pass
Over 2,5 Players : +165 Under 2.5 Players: -215
I do not see an argument for under at that price. We have seen Tom Brady constantly throwback to a wide receiver throughout his years with the Patriots. Super Bowls are always going to bring out massive amounts of creativity. There should definitely be some trickery in this one.
Final Play Of The Game To Be A Kneel
Yes: -200 No: +159
Unless the game ends in a Hail Mary or last-second field goal attempt, it is hard to imagine the game ending in anything other than a kneel… right?
Past Super Bowl Prop Bets
The WestGate Las Vegas, an oddsmaker, started getting creative with prop bets on the Super Bowl. Now, every sportsbook puts out Super Bowl prop bets. Even websites likeCBS Sports, which does not cover gambling regularly, covers Super Bowl prop bets.
One popular prop bet for the Super Bowl is how long it will take the singer to complete the National Anthem. Leading up to Super Bowl LIV, singer Demi Lovato sang the National Anthem for the Conor McGregor vs Floyd Mayweather fight in 2018. She clocked in at well over 2 minutes for that performance. The expectation would be that she would do the same at the Super Bowl. Shockingly, Demi Lovato went under 2 minutes at +180 for the performance. This bet is offered every year and will assuredly be offered this year too.
NFL Season-Long Prop Bets
In addition to Super Bowl prop bets, many sportsbooks offer season-long NFL prop bets. These can be bets on a particular team or a particular player’s performances and stats over a season. In football, many of these NFL prop bets revolve around injuries.
For example, if at the start of the season, you bet on Dak Prescott to lead the league in passing yards, you are out of luck. He is out for the year and can no longer win the award. It is impossible to bet on who will or won’t get injured. However, it is best to grab a player who is rarely injured that you believe in. Avoid players who are often injured or have soft tissue injuries regularly.
How The NFL Draft Affects Super Bowl Odds
In some cases, the NFL Draft can shift the odds one way or another. For instance, the Chiefs drafted Clyde Edwards-Helaire at the backend of the first round by the Chiefs. He is expected to be a major contributor and able to help the Chiefs backfield. This is rare, however. Teams that are competing for a title usually do not have top draft picks to get an impact player. The Chiefs would have been the favorites to win the Super Bowl preseason whether they had Edwards-Helaire or not.
Strategies For Super Bowl Betting
Alternate Lines
Using Alternate Lines can be extremely profitable when it comes to sports betting. When a line comes out from the sportsbook, it can move in many different directions. If you like the Super Bowl line at the beginning of the week, it could be wise to jump on it early with an alternate spread to increase profitability.
Fade the Public?
Super Bowl lines move all over the place because it is one of the most bet on sporting events of the year. Fading the Public is a betting strategy that goes with the initial betting line that oddsmakers put out. The idea is to not follow where the public is betting and to always stick with the professionals.
What is Middling in Sports Betting?
A betting strategy that most casual bettors would not know, Middling is a strategy that mandates multiple wagers on a game. It is not perfect but it can be quite effective. The best way to explain middling is with an example.
- You place a bet on the New York Giants at -4 vs the Dallas Cowboys
- *The line moves to Giants -7*
- You then place a second wager on the Cowboys +7.
- It is called middling because the bettor wants the best of both outcomes. They want the Cowboys to lose by less than 7 and the Giants to win by more than 4.
This will limit your financial risk and allow you to win in multiple different ways.
Betting Odds For The Super Bowl FAQ
Yes, in states with legalized sports betting. Currently, almost two dozen US states allow legal sports betting, with more than a dozen of those states offering legal online sports betting.
Some of the states that offer both land-based and online sportsbooks include Nevada, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, and more.
Office pools and other types of betting on the Super Bowl outside of legal sportsbooks are technically against the law.
In most states, you must be 21 years of age or older to bet on the Super Bowl. In New York, Montana, and Rhode Island you are legally allowed to wager at 18 years or older. They have not legalized online sports betting yet.
The top online sportsbooks includes FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, and FOX Bet. Every single sportsbook that you find will offer bets on the Super Bowl. The Super Bowl is the most bet on sports event of the year so any sportsbook that is not offering the Super Bowl is not a reliable online sports betting site.
Yes. Using any of the legal online sportsbooks found on this page will allow you to place any bet legally and safely. Be careful to only use sportsbooks that are legally licensed or partnered with a legal online casino. They are the most reliable for safe deposits and cashouts.
Yes. Live betting on the Super Bowl is an extremely popular and fun way to bet. In-game betting is not limited to the spread or moneyline either. You can bet on a host of prop bets and point totals throughout the game as the lines move.
Yes. Many sportsbooks have licenses to hold these types of bets. From the length of the National Anthem to the color of the Gatorade at the end of the game, everything can be bet on during the Super Bowl.
The current favorite to win Super Bowl LV is the Kansas City Chiefs. They are the favorite to win it after a fantastic season and matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
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Super Bowl LV will take place on February 7th, 2021 in Tampa, Florida.
Tampa Bay will be the first team to host the Super Bowl and play it on February 7th, 2021. There will be fans at the stadium but a limited number. This makes it a very exclusive event this year.
Gambling is taking a risk of losing something of value on an unpredictable outcome. When you gamble at either an online or land based casino both you and the casino take a risk in losing something of value. The risk is greater for you because the casino only offers games that provide a statistical advantage to the casino.
However, much statutory and some case law has been devoted to ensuring that casinos and players don’t cheat each other by subtly altering the conditions of gambling games without each other’s knowledge and permission. You can, though, change the terms of the game. The casino often provides a way for you to do this.
But should you take the offer?
There are two things you need to understand before you can start improving your chances of winning when you gamble. First, you can change the outcome of a gambling game. Second, you will almost always confuse yourself if you try to do the math. These two most common of gambling mistakes help the casinos earn tens of billions of dollars every year.
How You Change the Outcome in a Gambling Game
Many casino gambling games allow and even encourage players to change the stakes, the odds, and even the percentage chances of winning. Here are a few examples of how you can change the outcome of a gambling game (almost always for the worst).
Say you are playing a slot machine game and you win a prize on a spin. A special “Gamble” button lights up. You are now prompted to play a secondary game, maybe betting on the outcome of a virtual coin toss, using the prize you just won as the stake in your new bet. This is an exciting feature. It also means you are risking the loss of what you just won on a game with a better “edge” for the casino.
Most slot games have a theoretical return to player above 75%. Games developed after 2010 usually have better than a 90% theoretical return. The RTP is an estimate of how much money would be retained by a hypothetical player who spun the reels continually for a period of several years. It’s not a realistic estimate of how much money you will win, lose, or hold on to. It’s a statistical measurement used to gauge how friendly the game is to the gambler.
In a coin toss the theoretical return to player is 50% or 1 in 2. So let’s assume you just gambled $5 on a spin in the basic slot game and that you won $10. You have doubled your money. Now the “Gamble” light activates and you are invited to take your $10 and bet it on the outcome of a coin toss. And suppose the “Gamble” feature allows you to wager on the outcome of two concurrent coin tosses. Now you have a choice: bet on 1 coin toss for a chance to double your $10 to $20 or bet on 2 concurrent coin tosses for a chance to quadruple your money.
Your chances of winning the double concurrent coin toss are 25% or 1 in 4.
You would have a better chance to keep your $10 prize and just spin again on the basic game. By taking the “Gamble” challenge you improve the casino’s chances of winning your next bet. It’s like paying $5 for a quarter of pie at one restaurant and then paying another $10 for an eighth of a pie at a different restaurant. Are you really getting a better piece of pie at the second restaurant?
In the game of blackjack if the dealer offers you insurance most experts tell you not to take it. Why? Because you are betting that you will lose your basic wager. The chances of being correct (that the dealer has a blackjack) on your insurance bet are worse than the chances that you can beat the dealer’s hand (your original wager).
The bottom line here is that casinos will sometimes offer you ways to change your stakes and your chances of winning to their own benefit. If you want to win at gambling, don’t take the deal behind door number 2. Stick to your original game and be consistent. Let someone else win the goat.
How to Confuse Yourself at Any Gambling Game
There is a certain idea among gambling experts that comparing the “house edge” in various gambling games helps you to make informed choices. The edge is a theoretical return to the casino, the complementary percentage for the theoretical return to player. In other words, in every form of gambling, there is only a 100% allocation of money. Gambling does not generate new wealth; all gambling does is pool wealth between the bettors and redistribute that wealth between the bettors (and sometimes also a middle man).
In the 1-on-1 game of blackjack there are only 2 bettors in your game: you and the casino. The casino is willing to pay up to the full amount of your bet if you win. It’s an even money match up, and that is really what makes blackjack so profitable for a casino. They risk less per round than they do with, say, roulette or a slot game. But if you have been reading blackjack tutorials you should know by now that the house edge is lower in blackjack than in other games, and therefore you have the best chance of winning in blackjack.
In fact, the dealer has a better chance of coming out ahead because at a busy table the dealer is playing multiple hands at once by the most conservative of rules. In other words, the casino is taking less risk per round in blackjack than the players while at the same time multiplying its chances of winning.
Players make mistakes when playing blackjack. Blackjack dealers don’t have to make hard decisions. In fact, by always going last the dealer often doesn’t have to make any choices at all. The players make most of the decisions in blackjack. And yet blackjack remains profitable for the casinos. The casinos are profiting from player mistakes.
Players make several types of gambling mistakes. One of the most common mistakes is to confuse the probability of winning with the theoretical return to player. The probability of winning is limited to the next round of play. The theoretical return to player is an estimate of what all the players of a game will collectively receive over the life of a specific game (or an arbitrarily large number of rounds in the game).
The rule of thumb is that the more rounds played for a given game the more the actual results of that game will average out close to the theoretical return to player (or the house edge).
But what are the chances of your drawing a natural blackjack on the next deal? What are the chances that the dealer will not win against you on the next deal? These are probabilities that can be computed on the basis of how many cards are left in the shoe, less the cards that have already been played. Those probabilities change as more cards are played but they rarely if ever line up with the theoretical return to player.
The mistake players make is assuming that the house only has a 2.5% chance of winning the next round. The dealer’s chance of winning that next hand can be as high as 100% and as low as 0%. The house edge is always irrelevant with respect to any individual round played on any gambling game from keno to slots to blackjack to baccarat.
When you gamble, it’s nice to know how much money the house is expected to retain over the next 30 days but that won’t help you predict how much you win or lose in any of the next 10 rounds of play.
Expert gamblers like to calculate probabilities but probabilities do not predict the next round’s outcome. The roulette wheel always has a 1 in 37 or 1 in 38 chance of landing on any given number. The chance that the ball will land on number “7” 100 times in a row remains 1 in 37 or 1 in 38. That never changes (allowing for truly random spins, although the laws of physics mandate that the spins won’t be completely random).
On the other hand, what is the expected probability of a random spin of the roulette wheel producing “7” 100 times in a row? This is where you multiply your individual spin probability (1/3x) by itself the number of times in a row (100 in this case). The expected probability of the wheel hitting “7” 100 times in a row is 1.51296e-157 (a very, very small number). But that low probability has no bearing on the probability of the next spin.
This is the dichotomy of probability theory, where you are dealing with large sequences of independent events. The expected probability does not mean you cannot or will not see the unlikely outcome. In this hypothetical example, we are simply computing how many possible outcomes there are and assuming the chances of producing the same result 100 times in a row are equivalent to a certain percentage of those possible outcomes.
Unfortunately (even semi-) random events have a way of defying the probabilities. But if someone offers you 100-to-1 odds that a roulette wheel will land on “7” 100 times in a row, verify their ability to pay and take the wager. They lose as soon as a different result turns up before the 100TH spin.
The bottom line here is simple: don’t try to do the math like an expert. Random chance will always eventually prove the experts wrong.
What You Must Do to Improve Your Chances of Winning
Here are a few basic rules for improving your chances of winning when you gamble.
- Stop second-guessing yourself.
Every casino game offers you a fair chance of winning. The games, when played fairly and legally, pay prizes that correspond to the expected probabilities of given outcomes, although casinos will hold back a little bit extra in most games to ensure they make some money. Hence, in roulette, the most you can win is 36-to-1 instead of 37-to-1 or 38-to-1.
The odds are always stacked against you. But random chance favors the fool, as the old saying goes. You just cannot guarantee you are the fool upon whom random chance showers its favors.
- Take the least possible risk.
In a hypothetical game where you win 100 rounds out of 100 rounds, you will kick yourself if you only wager $5 on each round for the chance to win $5 instead of wagering $100 on each round for the chance to win $10,000 on each round.
In reality, positive thinking doesn’t work when you gamble. The more you assume you could win the more you are likely to lose when you do lose.
Risking less does mean you win less per round but that’s okay.
- Manage your money so that you play as many rounds as possible.
You are more likely to win back $100 in wagers if you divide them into twenty $5 wagers than if you divide them into five $20 wagers.
Instead of playing numbers games (which is second guessing yourself) or assuming you will win a certain number of times (which is taking more than the least possible risk) you should assume you are going to lose more rounds than you win. When you play slots or even a modest keno game (like a 5-pick) you can still come out ahead when you play more rounds with small wagers than fewer rounds with large wagers.
But how does playing conservatively work in blackjack, when the average prize is an even money bet? If you lose only 49% of the rounds in blackjack you lose. Okay, smart guy, you know you need to double down a few times. Instead of playing numbers games and assuming you can lose X number of hands and double down on Y hands, just accept that once in a while you’ll have to double down to improve your chances in blackjack.
When should you double down? The experts agree that if the dealer is showing a 5 or 6 and you have an ace and anything less than a 7.
You don’t need to double a lot as long as you can double enough to come out ahead.
- Don’t try to win big.
That’s the real fun in gambling, though, isn’t it? You want to win the jackpot, hit the long odds, and outwit the dealer at every hand.
Going for the big win is the worst possible way to gamble. You may not be playing all-or-nothing but you are playing too much.
Still, you can adjust the amount of your wagers upward if you are doing well. Just keep them proportionate to your bankroll.
- Use a consistent percentage ceiling in your wager to bankroll ratio.
Although it is prudent to limit your initial wagers to 5% of your original bankroll, at some point you may double or triple your money. Does it make sense to continue playing by the original 5% measure?
Most gamblers will feel confident enough to increase their wagers. But while it’s usually good advice to ignore all betting systems when you gamble (because each has its flaws), you can set a limit of “5% of your current bankroll down to half”, meaning you gamble with $5 bets until you lose half the money you came in with.
If you double your money then you can double your wagers as long as you don’t go above 5%.
Five percent is not a magic number. You can set the percentage at 1%, 5%, 15%, or even 20%. You should be consistent about not going above your percentage. You still have the flexibility of making larger wagers if you roll up your money.
- Divide Your Bankroll At Certain Split Points.
This technique works best in land-based casinos, especially when you can put your money into tickets that are easy to carry around. A split point is a multiple of your bankroll. Say you begin gambling with $200 and you roll that up to $400 at the craps table. Now take half your money and put $200 of it into a ticket.
You can continue playing craps with the remaining $200 or you can try another game. When you roll up your second $200 to $400 again you split the money into another ticket plus money to play with.
After you have 3 or 4 tickets you can rotate them. Never play a ticket all the way down. Leave at least a few dollars on it so you can leave the casino with some money (and a little dignity).
When you gamble online it makes some sense to shift money from the game balance back to your main account. As long as you have money in your game account you should be good. It helps you to stay focused on conservative betting if you take money out of the game when you get ahead of your original bankroll.
- Play with Casino Bonus Money Whenever Possible
Land-based casinos may not offer you signup bonuses but many online casinos do. Play conservatively with the casino bonus money to increase your chances of fulfilling your wagering requirement with just the bonus money. While that won’t always happen the longer you can delay putting your own money into the game the better the chances you’ll start winning.
You can try this strategy with the “no deposit” welcome bonuses some casinos offer but they do limit how much credit they extend to you. You have more bonus money to work with when you accept a deposit match bonus.
- Stick to the Basic Game.
Whether you play slots, craps, roulette, or blackjack the less complicated you make your game the less likely you’ll place dumb bets.
The casino is counting you to make dumb bets. You should count on the casino to be less than generous with its odds on the best most likely to pay off.
There are few progressive wagers that are worth the money. The more you throw into a round the harder it will be to recover from a loss.
In craps bet on Pass or Don’t Pass and play the odds but keep it simple.
In blackjack bide your time and don’t split every time you get a pair of cards of the same value. Should you really split two 5 cards when you’re showing 10 on the table? Should you split two tens? Two nines? You have three options: play the basic game, double down, or split. On some tables you may be able to surrender if you don’t like the dealer’s cards but look at the strength of your cards first and your options for splitting second.
- Assume the free games are more generous than the paid games.
When you have a chance to “try before you buy” at an online casino the free game just may be slightly more generous than the paid version. There are several reasons why this might happen. If you can check the theoretical return to player for a free game and the paid version, look for differences.
Does the free game run on a different server? The different server may be using a different random number generator, a different random seed number, or a different estimated percentage for the theoretical return to player. Variations in all these things can affect the randomness of the outcome of the game.
Winning Odds Casino Games
- Play low variance games.
Sad to say, but the less volatility there is in the prize to wager ratio of a game the more likely it will pay you prizes. Volatility is an important measure for a casino because it needs to know how much cash to keep on hand. But you need to know how long you may have to play a game before you win a nice prize. That is where the variance comes into play.
Think of variance as “how much any random outcome of a game varies from the average expected outcome”. There is a relationship between variance and volatility (in fact, some gambling writers use these terms interchangeably). The casino cares more about the volatility and the player cares more about the variance.
How do you judge variance? It comes down to how long you can play the game with your initial bankroll. A low variance game has a tendency to take less of your money.
Hence, as noted above, you can affect the variance of the game in a limited way by playing conservatively and ignoring the extra bets the house offers.
Conclusion
Think of gambling as an endurance race between the bettors. Whoever can go more rounds wins the most money, unless random chance steps in and hands a big win to the individual gambler. Then gambling is more about who has the most self-discipline. The casino is playing a numbers game and just has to be there with enough cash on hand to keep the games going. The player has to have the wisdom and the self-discipline to walk away with the cash.
Harvard Medical School published a trove of data about online gamblers that was collected from 2005 to 2007 by an online casino (Bwin). Researchers who studied the data concluded that about 11% of gamblers were likely to win and that winners were more likely to play less frequently. Subsequently, researchers from the University of Michigan and the University of Connecticut compared that analysis to their own analysis of data from a Native American casino’s database. The second study found that about 13.5% of the land-based gamblers were winners.
The good news for most gamblers is that fewer than 5% of them contribute about 50% of the casino’s net revenue, and about 10% contribute 80% of the casino’s revenue, so most gamblers are not big losers. That means approximately 80% of gamblers share the burden of about 20% of the casino’s net revenue between themselves. Given that most people cannot lose enough money (for lack of wealth) to drop into the lower 10% (the Big Losers) changing how one gambles increases an individual’s chances of moving into the upper 10%.
Gamblers with little wealth to lose should still learn to make better choices. You cannot guarantee you will win but you can always cut your losses short or take fewer risks. Gambling is more fun when it is just entertainment. If your losses amount to no more than what you would spend on other types of entertainment such as concerts and travel, then have fun.
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